On Newcomb’s Paradox

For those who don’t know about it,  the following description describes it pretty well:

Newcomb’s Problem goes like this. There are two closed boxes on the table, Box A and Box B. Box A contains $1,000. Box B contains either $1 million or no money at all. You have a choice between two actions: 1) taking what is in both boxes; or 2) taking just what is in Box B.

Now here comes the interesting part. Imagine a Being that can predict your choices with high accuracy. You can think of this Being as a genie, or a superior intelligence from another planet, or a supercomputer that can scan your mind, or God. He has correctly predicted your choices in the past, and you have enormous confidence in his predictive powers. Yesterday, the Being made a prediction as to which choice you are about to make, and it is this prediction that determines the contents of Box B. If the Being predicted that you will take what is in both boxes, he put nothing in Box B. If he predicted that you will take only what is in Box B, he put $1 million in Box B. You know these facts, he knows you know them, etc. So, do you take both boxes, or only Box B?

As for my opinion…well, I think the paradox basically reduces to “if a being with supernatural powers existed and we could observe them, would it make sense to acknowledge it exists and act consequently?”. For me, the obvious answer is “Yes”.

Of course, the interesting part is explaining how the mysterious entity may work. Explanations tend to involve something like time travel (the being travels backwards in time after observing your decision) or brain simulation (the being is able to simulate you).

You can find in Wikipedia a good discussion of all of this.

~ by abelmolina on May 15, 2008.